NFL 2023 SEASON LONG PROPS
The 2023 NFL season props are starting to roll out. Many of the rookie Qb props are starting to drop. If you got in on the under on some of those early on, you are sittin’ pretty. There are a few out there that we can take advantage of if we strike while the iron is still hot. I’m excited to kick off the 2023 season, coming off a 68% win rate in 2022. Let’s continue that success by starting off with some season long props I listed below.
Update: 6-22-2023 - Players that were added: Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 3999.5 passing yds, Deshaun Watson OVER 22.5 pass tds.
Lamar Jackson (BAL-QB) UNDER 3625.5 pass yds.
I know you must think I’m a sick puppy to go under on this prop. But I don’t trust it. It’s a new system, the numbers still say he can’t pass to the outside. He’s been steadily declining since his 2019 season. He’s missed 10 games in the last 2 years due to injury. I buried him in my rankings last year and sure it worked out because he got injured but that was part of my analysis.
I have been warning my readers for 2 years that the cheat code Qb’s are not a cheat code. Lamar’s playing style makes him more susceptible to injuries and at some point, he must start passing. Lamar hasn’t gone over 2888 passing yards in 3 years and he’s only gone over 3100 yds once in his career. He’s not playing all 18 games and I as much as I think he’s a great kid and great talent, there’s nothing to suggest he will come close to 3600 passing yards. I’m going under on his passing yards.
UNDER 3625.5 pass yds.
Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB) OVER 1175.5 rush yds.
His 2022 season was marred by an ankle injury. This was another team that was in complete disarray from coaching to bad Qb and bad offensive line play. He was averaging almost 5 yards per attempt on the season. He’s still a top four talent at the position. The Colts are another team that will ease in a rookie Qb and lean on Taylor for help.
I’m not concerned with Anthony Richardson cutting into Taylor’s workload and opportunities as others think. Taylor is a rare breed of running back. I believe in him and his talents to have a bounce back year. I like his Td rushing prop at 8.5 rush TD’s as well.
OVER 1175.5 rush yds.
OVER 8.5 rush TD’s
Raachad White (TAM–RB) OVER 699.5 rush yds.
In his rookie season was splitting carries with Leonard Fournette and he ushed for 481 yds. on 129 attempts. This year he’ll have the backfield to himself so he should get at least 90 to 100 more touches. Last year he averaged 3.7 yds per carry behind a bad offensive line. The O-line won’t be much better but even if he dips down to 3.5 yds a carry, he could easily go over 700 yds with at least 70 more carries if they don’t sign a veteran of note.
OVER – 699.5 rush yds.
David Montgomery (DET-RB) OVER 750.5 rush yads.
Last year he rushed for 801 yds behind a bad offensive line. The Lions have arguably the best O- line in the league. The presence of newly acquired Gibbs doesn’t scare me. Montgomery averaged almost 4 yds per carry for the entire season. Lions are paying David, so he will get the touches while Gibbs will handle some of the pass catching work.
If I was to play Gibbs’ rushing yards prop at 625.5, I’d lean on the under and correlate a parlay with Montgomery’s prop. D’ Andre Swift never went over 617 rush yds during his time there and I think Gibbs is a lateral move at running back for the Lions.
OVER 750.5 rush yds.
Dameon Pierce (HOU-RB) – OVER 950 rush yds.
Last year he had 939 rushing yds., in 13 games as a rookie. He missed 4 games due to injury. This is my boi. Was super high on this kid last year way before the markets had a clue. I ranked him high before he was drafted to Houston and he more than paid off his ADP as a Texan. It was one of the easiest calls I’ve made in all my time playing and analyzing fantasy football. He averaged 4.7 Yds per carry last year.
This year is no different, except the team is upgraded in every way. Great offensive line, new coach, new young Qb who will lean on the run game to help ease into the game. Houston brought in Devin Singletary but as insurance only. I’m sure he’ll give Pierce a break which should keep Pierce spry and more efficient with his touches.
OVER 950 rush yds.
Najee Harris (PIT-RB) OVER 995.5 rush yds.
Najee rushed for over 1034 yds. last season while averaging 3.8 yds an attempt. He’s fully healthy with an upgraded offensive line in fron of him. He’s an old school tyoe running back work horse. He’s going to be fed.
OVER 995.5 rush yds.
Russell Wilson (DEN–QB) OVER 3875.5 pass yds.
If Russell Wilson doesn’t go over 4000 pass yds under new head coach Sean Payton, then Wilson is pretty much toast. Regular readers know I believe Wilson will bounce back. I’m not in the camp that do think he’s toast.
Wilson played 15 games last year and threw for over 3500 passing yards on team slowly imploding as the season went on, lead by a coach who was way in over his head. Wilson is going to want to prove the haters wrong. I expect him to go over his prop.
OVER 3875.5 pass yards
Kenny Pickett (QB–PIT) OVER 3300.5 pass yds.
I feel like Kenny Pickett doesn’t get any love. Nobody real talks about him but the kid can ball. Don’t sleep on him in best ball leagues, 2 QB leagues are as a backup. He played 13 games last season and threw for 2404 yds. He’s the definitive starter so he’ll be starting from the beginning of the season.
It will be his second year with the same offensive scheme and a full year of game time reps with the starters. If he plays for 17 games averaging only 200 yds passing per game he’ll go over his prop of 3300 pass yds. He’s an ascending player.
OVER 3300.5 passing yds
Jerry Jeudy (DEN-WR) OVER 899.5 receiving yds.
As you know by now, Denver was a disaster due to leadership. Jerry Jeudy still managed to put up almost 1000 receiving yards. Under new head coach Sean Payton, who is an actual leader of men, will be able to manage this team and scheme players open. Jeudy is set up for a proper breakout out and go over the 1,000 yd mark. Russell Wilson and Jeudy really started to build a connection the last five to six games of the season and I expect that to carry over into 2023.
OVER 899.5 receiving yds