NFL Future Player Props for the 2022 Season
The NFL future props are out. When I play season total props, it’s for fun. I’ll use some of my previous year winnings and add a bit towards my Fun Funds. I don’t use my main bankroll. Betting on future total season props can be risky. All it takes is an injury to derail the prop. The right thing to do is to play the “UNDER” for the most part for that reason. Travis Etienne is a prime example. I used him in a few 3 and 4 way parlays and that burnt me. I was still profitable but it could have been much better. So be careful with parlays.
You can find some great value if you get in on some of the future props. Just play what you know, and if online sports gaming books aren’t legal in your state yet but you have access to Prize Picks or similar type apps, keep the players limited to 2 a ticket. By seasons end you open up the app and you discover extra money in your bank roll. It’s akin to finding money in your pants pocket you haven’t worn in a while and completely forgot about. Play the guaranteed plays I’ve listed several players with great future numbers to take a shot on.
I have a few locks and several that I love. (if you dont have legal online sports book in your state, such as Fan Duel Sports Book or Caesar’s app for example, these numbers can be used on apps such as Prize Picks since more states are less likley to have online sports betting. They don’t pay me to push Prize Picks on you, as you can see I don’t have ANY adds from them let alone any corporations. Prize Picks so far is my preference. It’s easy to use, I prefer the interface, and it’s as close to any Vegas sports book, with all the different types of props and sports you can choose to play. They have been around for a few years and they haven’t been bought out yet by a differnt company trying to sell you their products as you play, so that’s a good sign. If you play on Fan Duel or Draft Kings online sports book in your state, check them and compare the numbers.
RUSHING TD’s
Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB) - 13.5 rushing TD’s. He had 11 last year. I personally wouldn’t probably touch this number. I know its not fun to root against player production, but I expect some rushing touchdown regression, but may catch a few more TD’s.
13.5 rush TD’s - UNDER - But I’m not touching this prop.
Najee Harris (Steelers-RB) – 7.5 rushing TD’s. A true work horse running back. He had massive volume and had only 7 rushing td’s. Catching a ton of passes elevated his numbers but at 7.5, he can easily attain 8 this year. His momentum is on the rise and we haven’t seen the best of Najee. this is one of my favorite plays.
7.5 rushing TD’s - OVER - LOCK
Derrick Henry (Titans–RB) - 9 rushing TD’s. Hundreds of screws in his foot. Okay, maybe not that many. I am not touching this one. He could easily hit this by getting all the goal line work and Hassan Haskins playing more downs to push the ball down field. Or he can get injured again and go under that number easily. It’s been rising and I have seen it as high as 13.5 AND I still will steer clear of this one. If your gut tells you otherwise, feel free to play it. The offensive line isn’t as bad as I thought it was going to be this year.
9 rushing TD’s - Personally not touching this one.
Javonte Williams (Denver-RB) - 7.5 rushing TD’s. He got 4 as a rookie in a complete 50-50 time share with Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon staying in Denver does not scare me away from him. He is going to be the main man, I know it and Melvin knows it. I have him as a top 4 running back this year. He’s getting 10 rushing td’s this year.
7.5 rushing TD’s - OVER - Lock this one in also. I lover the player and love the prop.
Joe Mixon (CIN-RB) – 9 rushing TD’s. He had 13 last year. The Joe Burrow led Bengals have a high powered passing offense, but they love to slow down the game when they can. – over went up to
9 rushing TD’s - OVER
Nick Chubb (CLE-RB) – 7.5 TD’s – Possibly the best pure runner in the game. He has gone over this number every single year he has been in the league. Running the ball is the identity of the Brown and even when Deshaun Watson is eventually under center, that won’t change how they play. They will have to lean on him more hen Watson is suspended.
7.5 rushing TD’s - OVER
QUARTERBACKS
Justin Herbert (LAC) - 35.5 TD’s – Herbert threw 38 td’s in the first year of a new offense without taking a single snap in the preseason play. Second year in the same offense, he should have a bigger year this year. I can see him hitting 40 td’s this year.
35.5 passing TD’s - OVER (FD- 35.5, DK– 36.5)
4700 passing yards - OVER (FD- 4600.5, DK- 4700.5)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) -36.5 TD’s thrown - The Super Bowl champ threw 41 td’s in the regular season. The tendinitis in his thrwoing arm is not a huge cause for concern, but it will randomly strike in the middle of a game and beceome a sight issue. I already expected touchdown regression for him, and the tendinitis adds more reason to go the under on his prop.
36.5 TD’s thrown - UNDER - (FD- 34.5, DK- 34.5)
Josh Allen (BUF) - 35.5 TD’s- He he has so many weapons around him he can probably get to 36, but he bareky got over 35 last year. He lost the man that helped make him the QB King of the NFL, in offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. It may be hard to replicate the 36 he got last year if he doesnt have the qb whisperer in his ear. The Bills will try to run the ball more to be more balanced. Drafting running back James Cook is one evidence of that. I probably won’t touch this prop, I beleive it will be close and if I did play this I would go the UNDER. (I know, I know, palying the UNDER is never fun. Making money is fun.)
35.5 passing TD’s - UNDER - (FD- 34.5, DK– 35.5)
Derek Carr (LV) – 29.5 passing TD’s - Carr is an underrated quarterback. He hasn’t had much help over the years. Inconsistencies all around him in pretty much every facet of the game. Bad offensive lines, their defense, what defense? No playmakers, multiple systems and horrendous coaching. In 2021, he took this team to their first playoff game in 14 years despite losing Darren Waller most of the season, a tragic situation involving wide reciever Henry Ruggs, an interim head coach due to the scandal surrounding Coach Gruden that led to his forced retirement, and problems still plauging the defense and offensive line. This year he’s got a him a proper play designing coach in Josh McDaniels, and his best freind and fellow teammate from thier time in Fresno State, Devante Adams, this dude is going to be the year Carr gets it done. I like his touchdown total prop and his passing yards total. He threw for 23 td’s and over 4800 passing yards last year. Devante’s addition will help him get 7 more and go over his touchdown prop and even if you took away 300 passing yards for regression, he should still hit the over on passing yards. Again, Devante’s addtion will keep him steadily at the 4500 passing yard threshold, barring an injuries.
29.5 passing TD’s - OVER - LOCK (FD- 29.5, DK- 29.5)
4500 passing yards - OVER - LOCK (FD- 4350.5 DK- 4550)
Matt Ryan (IND) – 24.5 passing TD’s. Last year he threw 21 td’s on a horrible team, with a horrible offensive line. Matt Ryan is a great veteran quarterback. Now playing for the Colts, a playoff contending team with much better O-line, Matt Ryan will have time to throw and have a bounce back season. He will have a bounce back season.
24.5 passing TD’s - OVER - LOCK (FD – 25.5, DK – 25.5)
3900 passing yards - OVER
Kirk Cousins (MIN) – 4200 passing yards. He’s gone over that every year in the last 2 years. New Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and new OC Wes Phillips, will be throwing it more trying to emulate the Rams. irv Smith is on track to start week 1. Adam Thielen is healthy and probably won’t be covered because every one has forgotten about him.
4200 passing yards - OVER - (FD- 4150.5, DK – 4200.5)
Tom Brady Under (TB) – 4750 passing yards – 2 0ffensive lineman out, may not get Godwin back at the start of the year, and Rob Gronkowski, announced his retirement.
4750 passing yards - UNDER
RUSHING YARDS
Derrick Henry (TEN-RB) – 1450.5 rushing yards - He suffered a major injury and has a meta plate and several pins in it. One of my concerns with Henry last few years is the excessive amounts of touches he was getting. It was a matter of time before he got injured. The offensive line took a hit. He lost a great run blocker in Rodger Saffold to the Bills. A major reason why the Bills want to run more. I have drafted Devin Singletary and James Cook consistently in best ball drafts.
1450.5 rushing yards – UNDER - (FD - 1350.50, DK - 1350.50)
Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB) – 1400.5 rushing yards -He rushed for 1811 yards last year. Matt Ryan is a better Qb than Carson Wentz so they won’t have to rely on Taylor as much but i would still go the OVER on this prop. I feel much better about the prop on Fan Duel, but Im still probably would play the over on Prize Pick if I was to play this. It’s going to be a close one by seasons end.
1400.5 rushing yards - UNDER - (FD – 1350.50 - Over, DK – 1450.5)
Najee Harris (PIT-RB) – 1150.5 rush yards - He rushed for 1200 yards in his rookie season. Steelers will once again lean heavily on him. The Steelers will be able to throw the ball down the field unlike the dinks and dunks from Ben Rothlisberger last year. This will allow Najee to be more productive.
1150.5 rush yards - OVER (FD – 1120.5, DK - 1200)
Joe Mixon (CIN-RB) – 1050 rushing yards - He rushed for 1205 yards behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The improved offensive line is not only going to help out Joe Burrow, but it will help out Joe Mixon even more. The Bengals have arguably the best trio of receivers and can get it done in the air, but the Bengals do slow the pace down and run the ball.
1050.5 rushing yards - OVER - (FD – 1050.5, DK – 1050.5)
Javonte Williams (DEN-RB) - 950.5 rushing yards - He rushed for 903 yards last year as a rookie and in a complete time share. I don’t see the split being right down the middle again. Melvin Gordon’s presence doesn’t scare me. Javonte is the lead back and should easily go over 950 given the extra opportunity he will get.
950.5 rushing yards - OVER - (FD- 925.5, DK – 945.5) - LOCK
David Montgomery (CHI-RB) - 900.5 rushing yards – He rushed for 849 yards last season. He’s the lead running back and Justin Fields is going to want to lean on him to take some pressure off himself.
900.5 rushing yards – OVER - (FD – 925.5, DK – 900.5,
Josh Jacobs (LV-RB) - 750.5 rushing yards - Josh Jacobs was one of the most consistent players in fantasy last year. Consistency wins in fantasy football, not “upside”. Jacobs hasn’t gone under 870 rushing yards since he got into the league. He is the best running back on the team and it’s not even close. Zamir White and his two ACL tears, the consistent unavailability of Kenyan Drake in years past, and elderly running back Brandon Bolden won’t be challenging him for many touches. He’s also playing for a new contract this year. No reason for head coach Josh McDaniels not to run the wheels off of Jacobs this year. Coming over from the Patriots, they tended to use a committee backfield, but that’e because they didn’t have a main guy. Jacobs is that guy, with Ameer Abudullah Zamir White giving him a rest or handling some pass catching duties, but Jacobs is the guy in between the tackles and he can catch passes.
750.5 rushing yards - OVER - (FD - 825.5, DK – 750.5)
Antonio Gibson (WAS-RB) – 974.50 rushing yards - Had I known sooner he was a wide receiver converted to running back, I would have never been in on Gibosn. His biggest issue is his indecision. He’s not completely disappearing but I expect rookie Brian Robinson to not only take chunks away from his production, and can eventually be the main guy by the end of the season if Gibson’s fumbling issues continue.
974.50 rushing yards - UNDER - LOCK
Elijah Mitchell (SF-RB) – 925 rushing yards - He spent time away due to injury and I can see that happening again. Jeff Wilson will also be rotated in, as well as the rookie Tyrion Davis-Price. Don’t forget Deebo will also get some rushing attempts
925 rushing yards - UNDER
Devin Singletary - 700 rushing yards - Devin Singletary rushed for 870 yards last year. As I mentioned earlier in regards to the Josh Allen prop, the Bills want to to run the ball more. They acquired run blocker Rodger Saffold from the Titans and Mitch Morse is a run blocking center.
700 rushing yards - OVER
Good luck and happy gaming!